So, it’s finally happening. Election time. We knew it was coming this year and now we have a date. Honestly, it’s a relief.

Part of me expected Rishi Sunak to hold out until January next year. He’s really likely to lose this election, so why not be Prime Minister as long as he can? There’s always the hope that a miracle will save him.

Between some better-than-expected economic figures and rising speculation about a leadership challenge, the pressure has mounted on Sunak enough to call an election. Like a man dangling from a footbridge over a motorway, he’s had a tense few moments but has finally decided to take the plunge.

Election predictions

Now the intros are out of the way, let’s move onto the good stuff: election predictions. Keir Starmer is going to be Prime Minister after this election. As a prediction, it’s not as certain as “the sun will rise tomorrow” but it’s about as certain as “I will have a pint of strong hazy craft beer on Saturday.” It’s going to happen, unless an unprecedented disaster occurs.

There are a few big questions unanswered. How big will the majority be? It could be anything from historically massive to merely comfortable enough that Labour doesn’t have to worry about passing its legislative agenda for a while. The answer to the “how big will the majority be?” question is linked to a host of other key questions. How well will Labour do in Scotland? How well will the Lib Dems do? What about Reform and the Greens?

I see big gains for Labour in Scotland at the expense of the SNP, due to their internal turmoil and Labour leading on issues like the economy and health that are top of voters’ minds everywhere, including in Scotland. The Lib Dems are likely to do well in the southwestern Blue Wall, winning seats from the Tories and we’re likely to see the most Lib Dem MPs returned since 2010. Reform will steal votes from the Tories everywhere, but this will mainly benefit Labour and they won’t get any MPs.

Disgruntled lefties

Many disgruntled lefties will vote for the Greens (although I can’t blame anyone for voting Labour just to make sure the Tories definitely go) but I think they’ll only get one MP from this (Bristol not Brighton). It’s a shame as a lot of left-wing voters, myself included, are annoyed at Starmer for how far he has moved Labour to the right (compared to his leadership bid, or Jeremy Corbyn’s platform, or even Ed Miliband’s time as leader) and want to vote for a party to take serious action on the environment, child poverty, housing, etc.

The first past the post system means that the Greens might get more votes than ever, but they’ll end up with fewer MPs than the DUP. George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britian will do very little of anything. The best thing to be said for the left in this election is the Tories are on the way out. Beyond that, well, we’ll see.

Government by over promoted management consultants

Starmer doesn’t deserve the huge majority that is, most likely, about to be delivered to him. The Tories have lost this election; between Boris Johnson partying while we said goodbye to our Nans on Zoom and Liz Truss crashing the economy and whacking up everyone’s mortgages (particularly swing voters’).

Sunak has been blown around by economic headwinds and spent the little political capital and room to manoeuvre that he has doing very little of anything. At least Johnson could effectively bang the drum for Ukraine. Sunak is government by over-promoted management consultant.

The Tories deserve to lose this election

The Tories deserve to lose this election. They deserve the massive kicking they’re about to get. Since David Cameron started rolling out his austerity programme, they have been making this country worse in every way for everyone, (especially for the poor and vulnerable) apart from their rich mates. Even when the economy grew, real wages fell and life got harder for everyone (especially for the poor and vulnerable).

Since the 2010 election the Tories have consistently plunged new lows of vindictive cruelty (the two-child benefit cap, the Windrush Scandal, etc) economic mismanagement (take a look at your gas bill) and political dysfunction (Brexit, Covid-19, etc) and it’s all at yours and mine expense (I assume you’re not a rich pensioner or owner of a FTSE 100 company).

The day after victory

If Starmer can drag the creaking mess of the Labour Party over the line and into government then on July the 5th (the NHS’s 76th birthday) I will pop open a can of hoppy craft beer and raise it to him and say: “Good on you, you kicked the bastards out of power.” Then I will indulge in some very pleasant Tory schadenfreude.

The day after I will be asking one question: what are you doing, Starmer, to fix the huge list of problems facing this country? Yes, the list is long. Yes, there will be multiple conflicting crises. Yes, the money and political room to manoeuvre will be tight. Doesn’t matter. History has conspired to give you the vast power of being Prime Minister and (most likely) a big enough parliamentary majority to make your vision a reality.

Wield power for our benefit. Wield power to help the single mum working two jobs who can’t afford to eat, pay rent and heat her flat. Wield power to help the pensioner on an NHS waiting list waiting for a vital treatment. Wield power to help the people sleeping rough under the Finsbury Park railway bridge or the families stuck in temporary accommodation. Wield power to help the migrant stuck in administrative limbo unable to access housing or health. Wield power to help debt burdened millennials who can’t afford a home, to start a family or to save for a pension. I could go on.

Starmer stress test time

Of course, there is the chance that Starmer will lose (or not have a majority). Things looked pretty good for Theresa May in 2017 and we all know how that worked out. There are elements of the Starmer programme that haven’t been stress tested.

He hasn’t published a manifesto. How will it be costed? Will there be debates? Tory/Labour/Reform swing voters are very angry about immigration and Labour is weak on this issue (from their point of view). There is a chance that Starmer might come unstuck when he gets asked serious questions, or stupid ones (like “can a woman have a penis?” - asked only by people with a weird obsession with what other people have in their underwear).

Who knows what will happen. There might even be an explosion of concern about the climate or for people in Gaza. Starmer’s approach of saying and promising as little as possible might come undone when faced with election media frenzy. Yes, he’s likely to win, but it’s not certain.

Reshape this country for the better

We’re about to have an election. The outcome is the most certain in advance since 2001, if not ever. What I want to see is a debate about what will happen on July the 6th; as what will happen on July the 4th is pretty obvious (the 5th is for counting votes and sleeping). Let’s talk about what Labour can do to reshape this country for the better.

I’m not hugely excited for a Starmer victory in July. If you read this blog, you’ll know that. I haven’t decided yet if I will vote for him or not. So, I will say this: convince me Starmer, like I’m the dude from that meme looking smug behind his table. Show me how this country will be better when you’re in charge with a big majority.

Give me a reason

Go beyond competence and economic growth. Give me a reason to think that the pain that I read about every day, from homelessness to energy bills, can be alleviated by sensible Labour politicians deploying well debated policy.

My vote is right here. Take it. Make me believe that things can only get better. I’ll be watching (and writing here).

Polling station image taken by Rachel H and used under creative commons.