As the year draws to a close, we look back on a momentous UK general election that reshaped the political landscape. Labour achieved a historic landslide victory, reversing its fortunes less than five years after a crushing defeat, while the Conservatives suffered their worst loss since 1997. Now, as the dust settles, we can begin to comprehend the forces behind this political earthquake.

The most comprehensive exploration of the 2024 election’s outcome comes from Steve Rayson in his new book, Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain, and a Punishment Election. This deeply researched account traces the roots of the Conservative Party’s collapse, beginning with Boris Johnson’s tumultuous tenure and the seismic challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rayson meticulously examines the past five years of political upheaval, detailing the factors that turned voters against the Tories and culminated in their catastrophic defeat.

Nothing works anymore

Central to the book is the emergence of a clear political narrative the spread of which led to the Tories’ downfall: “Nothing works anymore because the Conservatives are incompetent and should be punished.” Rayson identifies three core elements of this narrative:

1. Nothing works anymore – the collapse in standards in key public services

2. Conservatives are incompetent – the perception that recent Tory governments have been riddled with mismanagement.

3. The Conservatives should be punished – a voter backlash fuelled by frustration and anger.

Drawing on an impressive array of focus group data, polling, and analytical studies, Rayson paints a comprehensive picture of how voter attitudes evolved. He charts the erosion of the Conservatives’ reputation for economic competence, the rise of Reform UK siphoning off traditional Tory voters, and the growing centrality of migration as a political issue.

Voter volatility

What makes this political moment unique, as Rayson argues, is the volatility of modern voter behaviour. Traditional coalitions no longer hold, with voters increasingly willing to switch allegiances. Rayson quotes pollster James Kanagasooriam’s apt summary of this development: “Political coalitions these days are more like sandcastles—impressive but liable to be swept away.”

From a left-wing perspective, my key takeaway is that Collapse of the Conservatives emphasises that the Tories lost this year’s election rather than Labour winning it. As Rayson notes, Keir Starmer benefited from an electorate overwhelmingly intent on punishing the Conservatives. However, this presents a precarious mandate for Labour. Starmer must now deliver on critical issues, such as NHS waiting times and economic growth, or risk losing support in an era of widespread political distrust.

Rayson underscores this fragility: “Despite its landslide victory in seats, the Labour Party’s vote share was still fragile and the fragmentation of its coalition was visible in the seats it lost to independent candidates and the Greens.” The decline in Starmer’s approval ratings post-election further highlights the challenges Labour faces in maintaining its coalition.

Jenga tower

The book’s final chapters look to the future, particularly the election of Kemi Badenoch as the new Conservative leader. Rayson argues that the Tories face a daunting task in rebuilding trust on economic issues, countering Reform’s rise, and navigating an electorate increasingly resistant to stable political loyalties.

He warns that Labour’s current majority could prove ephemeral: “The Labour government’s majority has been compared to a Jenga tower, which has been raised high by taking blocks out of the foundations. The result is a tall tower with a base full of holes that could collapse very quickly.”

Collapse of the Conservatives is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the political landslide of 2024. However, my main take away from reading it is that despite the many political shocks of the last four years, the volatility of modern politics has not been resolved by this year’s general election and we could be in for many more political surprises in the future.

Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election by Steve Rayson is out today and can be purchased from Amazon.

Polling station image taken by Rachel H and used under creative commons.