2019: The year of rapid motion

2018 was year of marginal gains for the left and little change overall. Stagnation gripped the world as politics was unable to deal with a series of massive problems. This included slow economic growth and the rise of authoritarian populism on the world stage, to Brexit and parliamentary deadlock in the UK.

This year was the year of rapid motion, of sudden leaches forward, as if the pent-up tension had been suddenly released. Forward motion is not the same as progress and much of this motion was away from the goals the left want to achieve.

The UK

Early in the year, the looming Brexit deadline and then Prime Minister Theresa May’s inability to pass a withdrawal deal through parliament led her to seek an extension to the Article 50 period. This was, finally, some decisive action to prevent a No Deal Brexit disaster. Despite being granted extra time via two separate Brexit extensions, May was still unable to pass her Brexit deal.

This fuelled popular anger at Westminster elites and fed conspiracy theories about MP trying to stop Brexit, which was odd because many of the most pro-Brexit Tory MPs were the ones voting against May’s deal. Against this background, Nigel Farage founded a new political party, the Brexit Party, which comfortably won the EU election in May. He seized on populist anger at the lack of Brexit and the Tories suffered their worst electoral performance ever, winning only 9% of the vote. The infighting this plunged the party into went beyond parody to become an existential threat to the party’s future.

Farage’s success was short lived, as May resigned and the Tories quickly choose Boris Johnson as their new leader. Johnson’s strong pro-Leave credentials led to him winning back much of the support that had bled away to the Brexit Party. First the Brexit Party’s, and then the Tory party’s, ability to harness anger at the lack of Brexit are a stark warning to those on the left and the Remain side about how strong the desire for Brexit is in some parts of the UK.

These Brexit delays did not lead to significant progress for the anti-Brexit movement. The emergence of a movement to stop Brexit continued, with new Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson promising to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit if they won a general election; an outcome as likely as Buckingham Palace being turned into a BrewDog. This was the only significant gain for Remain in 2019, a free vote in parliament on a second referendum failed to win a majority. Although the number of people opposed to Brexit remains high, this figure is not growing.

Johnson becoming Tory leader broke the deadlock on Brexit. He renegotiated May’s exit deal and put a vote before parliament that seemed likely to pass, had MPs not found a last-minute loop hole that allowed them to delay the decision further. This was followed by a general election in December that not even serious politics nerds like me could get excited about. Although it looked for a while like this would result in another hung parliament, and more indecision, in the end Johnson won a large majority.

Johnson’s victory has ended the era of parliamentary stagnation and deadlock that has gripped British politics since the referendum. Now there is a clear government, with a clear majority and a clear agenda. It will be one the left finds abhorrent and we need to put our energy into fighting this government over the next five years.

In many ways the 2019 election was what the 2017 one appeared to be in its initial stages, i.e. a clear victory for the Tories as politics reforms around Remain/Leave lines and the Tories succeed by winning over many working-class Labour Leave voters. Despite more people voting for Remain than Leave parties, there is now a clear majority for Leave in the Commons (due to the vagaries of First Past the Post) as well as enough Tory MPs to make any of Johnson’s whims a reality.

The poor performance of the Labour Party in this election was partly due to the massive unpopularity of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose personal poll rating never recovered from the dip it took after he questioned Russia’s involvement in the Salisbury poisonings.

I was a supporter of Corbyn since he announced that he was standing to be Labour leader. I wanted him to move the political debate leftwards, which to a degree he succeeded in. However, as well making new left-wing arguments possible, it was necessary for Corbyn to win power and implement left-wing policies. Only through people seeing the positive benefits to their lives of enacting left-wing policies will a larger movement further to the radical left be achieved. Ending capitalism before it destroys us all in a climate apocalypse can only be achieved if the left can implement the social democracy that Corbyn was offering.

Corbyn’s massive unpopularity with voters was a problem. But there were other factors in Labour’s defeat, many of which pre-date Corbyn becoming leader. The collapse of Labour’s traditional voting coalition, as towns become more socially conservative and cites become more socially liberal, contributed to David Cameron’s surprise victory majority in 2015. Brexit is also a major issue; Corbyn was forced against his instincts to move the party to a more Remain position to counter what turned out to be a greatly exaggerated threat from the Lib Dems. This played perfectly into Johnson’s hands. His simple and effective “get Brexit done” message allowed him to force a crowbar into the existing fissures in Labour’s northern red wall and then collapse it.

The issue of Brexit and the paralysis and division it has created has prevented the left from engaging with the problems exposed by Labour’s 2015 defeat. The splintering of the left voting coalition is a problem across the Western world, from the USA to Germany. Now that it looks like Brexit will be resolved (Johnson has managed to pass his Brexit deal through parliament, so Brexit is now definitely happening) the left needs to focus on this key issue of the growing political divide between Bolsover and Bethnal Green.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. This could be the most right-wing Tory government ever. Homelessness and child poverty have shot up since the Tories came to power nearly a decade ago. Many people are working several jobs but are still unable to afford both food and rent. Our schools, hospitals, roads and police services are desperately underfunded. Many people are suffering after a decade of stagnant wage growth. The country needs rapid motion towards something better, however, this year the motion has been towards something worse. Johnson and the Tories will not address any of these problems, so it is up to the left to be the champions of all the people who are suffering and to deliver some meaningful change.

The USA

Following an indecisive mid-term election in 2018, American politics also seemed to break the deadlock this year. Congress finally acted against the many astonishing abuses of power by President Donald Trump and impeach him. This had more to do with a new democratic house majority than it did with Republicans finally waking up to the awfulness that Trump, his norm-shattering behaviour, and his legion of white nationalist supporters represents. The Republicans are continuing their strategy of feeding the tiger of Trump and everything he represents in the hope that he will eat the Republicans establishment last. This means that the Impeachment hearings are unlikely to remove Trump, but will at least record for posterity that some people were opposed to him abusing his office to enrich himself.

The race to be the democratic nominee to face Trump in the election this year has narrowed, and the choice appears to be between four main candidates: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden. The democrats have not decided on what sort of party they want to be, or how best to run against Trump, but clear figureheads for the different options have emerged. Biden and Buttigieg stand for retaking the centre ground of American politics and fighting the election on a “return to normality” against the madness of Trump. Warren and Sanders stand for offering the voters something more radical, a chance to make people’s lives better, in order to beat Trump by inspiring hope in something better.

American politics often appears frighteningly right-wing to me and Biden’s past actions on busing, for example, would make anyone to the left of Farage in the UK very uneasy. Despite this, I can’t help but be encouraged by Sanders and Warren offering a chance to move the political debate in the US left-wards. Although, my experiences of recent general elections have taught me to be wary of hope.

Impeachment will likely play into Trump’s tiny hands and allow him to paint himself as man of the people against the establishment trying to persecute him. The fact that the left in America have allowed a billionaire to convince blue collar America he is as a man of the people is a terrible indictment of how ineffective the left in the States has been. It’s on par with the British left allowing an Eton-educated classist to present himself as a man of the people. In the bizarre politics of the early 21st century, it’s crazy that the fact that I have a membership of the British Museum makes me more establishment than a Prime Minister who speaks ancient Greek, badly, simply because I am on the left.

The populist realigning of politics has been at the expense of the left. The failure of left-wing ideas to combat right-wing populism was summed up by technocratic attempts to stop the projects of the right without engaging with why they are popular. This was summed up by the impeachment of Trump, instead of voting him out, or revoking Article 50, instead of convincing people that Brexit is a terrible idea. These actions have been generally led by those on the soft left, but they show an inability to grapple with the reasons why we are losing.

The world

Across the world this year we saw an explosion in climate activities. This is an area of sudden motion that offers some encouragement to the left. Again, years of pent up frustration about the lack of action to tackle the greatest threat to human civilianisation since the atomic bomb has spilled forth in people young and old (although mainly young) taking to the streets to demand action from governments.

We had Greta Thunberg addressing the UN, school children on strike, Extinction Rebellion shutting down central London and Labour making its most radical commitment ever to action on the environment. While Australia burns and right-wing politicians from Trump to Johnson refuse to do anything about the looming disaster, the left needs to build on this energy and achieve real progress on stopping a climate disaster.

Despite encouraging levels of climate activism, the majority of the rapid motion across the world was towards nationalism. Italy narrowly missed out having a far-right government but there are still strongmen in charge of Russia, Poland, Hungry, the Philippines and Turkey. The left needs a counter narrative to the one that is luring voters towards nationalism if we are to stop the rapid progress of strongmen, nationalists and racists across the world.

The future

A new decade dawns and we are looking at at least five years of Tory rule in Britain or possibly even a Tory government for the entire 2020s. Trump could win re-election or Mike Pence could take over and be even worse. There is a strong possibility that the next year or decade could be a time of movement away from the left, so we need to be ready to fight in the streets, on the doorsteps, in legislatures and online.

The 2010s have been a lost decade marred by the success of the right and the far-right, and we need the 2020s to be different. The fight against the right starts with the London Mayoral election in May and then the US Presidential election in November. Hopefully, this time next year I’ll have good news to report on these fronts.

The coming decade also offers existential threats to the entire United Kingdom. The success of nationalists in Scotland and Northern Ireland means that in ten years’ time we could be looking at a very different United Kingdom. Certainly, Scottish independence will be a major issue over the next few years.

In 2020 itself we will see a Labour leadership election and a chance for the party to tackle the crucial questions of who do we represent and what do we stand for? It’s currently unclear exactly who will be standing for Labour leader and I’m keeping an open mind about any prospective candidates. I have set out three tests that any candidate looking for my support (massive boon that would be, I know) would have to meet.

Next year could be another year of rapid change. Brexit will happen and the politicians who promoted it will have to reconcile what they promised with reality. The same goes for Johnson, and the nurses and police he promised in the general election. Another area for change could be the economy. We are overdue a recession as they have occurred regularly once every ten years since the 1970s and we haven’t had once since 2008. Many of the weakness that the 2008 global financial crash exposed haven’t been dealt with, so the impact of a second recession after years of anaemic growth could be devastating.

I’m not sure what the immediate future or the next decade will hold, but based on the last year and the last decade there will likely be sudden and surprising changes. We are going through a phase of global political change and if the last few years have taught us anything it’s that anything is possible. The old rules are being ripped up and the risks and opportunities are immense. With that in mind, I’m wishing you all a safe 2020 and 2020s.

Picture of Jeremy Corbyn taken by Garry Knight and used under creative commons.