The end of the Corbyn project

The results are in and it’s the worst result for Labour since 1983. Labour have been all but wiped out in Scotland and pounded to dust in England and Wales. Although he didn’t quite win a landslide, Boris Johnson will go down in history as a huge winner for the Tory Party.

It’s not easy for me to write those words as someone who has been a Labour Party member since they were 18. The next words are harder to write, but they need to be said: Jeremy Corbyn is to blame for this defeat.

On the evening of the election I was happy with what Labour was offering policy wise, but I had my concerns about Corbyn’s leadership and whether he could hold together Labour’s electoral coalition. It turns out those concerns were well placed as they led to a huge Labour defeat.

Owning the result

On the left we need to be clear: this is not the fault of the hostile media or the electorate being stupid. This historic defeat was caused by Corbyn’s massive unpopularity. This was especially a problem in the working-class areas of the North and Midlands where the Tories won safe Labour seats. Many people were strongly opposed to the idea that Corbyn should be Prime Minister.

Corbyn didn’t adequately explain his vision for a fairer society. It’s a vision I supported. More money for schools and hospitals, tackling homelessness and the looming environmental disaster. What’s not to like? The problem was that despite voters wanting all these things, Corbyn couldn’t convince them that he could deliver them. Corbyn also failed to explain his position on Brexit (a position arrived at after a painful long period of dithering). He also failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour Party, was not seen patriotic enough and failed to deal with issues that many people from his activism for peace.

We must be clear: because of this failure, there will be another five years of Tory rule at least. Five more years of NHS underfunding. Five more years of cuts to schools, social care and local government. Five crucial years to do something about the environment emergency that will be wasted. People will die because of the failure of the Labour Party on Thursday.

The broader picture

Generally this election was a complete shitshow on all accounts. The Tories lied and spread fake news (such as a totally made up story about a Labour activist punching a Tory). Many media outlets repeated these fake stories without scrutiny.

There was insufficient scrutiny of what the parties were actually offering. Johnson’s Brexit plan is the most significant change to our national economy since 1945, yet he was able to present it as business as usual. He also plans to completely change our economy by the end of next year, whilst also cutting or maintaining tax rates and reducing the deficit. Again there was a massive failure to scrutinise this series of contradictory, overly optimistic pledges. Just because I feel I should hang my head in shame right now doesn’t mean that there aren’t a lot of other people who need to take a good long hard look in the mirror and ask themselves whether it’s wise to report a serial liar’s words without scrutiny.

Whilst I’m on this diatribe of things that look awful in retrospect: moving Labour to a stronger Remain position was a terrible idea. Many seats that voted to Leave have now voted Tory. Now that taboo has been broken it will be much easier to do again in the future. Labour Remainers who pushed for this policy change share some responsibility for the defeat and will be duly rewarded with Johnson’s very hard Brexit.

Speaking of Brexit: Labour MPs really should have voted through Teresa May’s slightly softer Brexit and got the issue done with before the election. Hindsight is 20/20 I know, but voting down May’s deal has ultimately led to the certainty of a harder Brexit and a massive Tory majority.

Coalition collapse

The Tories have used Brexit to crowbar apart the traditional Labour coalition. Brexit has created a fissure between Labour Leavers and Remainers and now Johnson has used it to turn the fissure into a chasm, maybe even a schism. This would have been a problem for any Labour leader, and it will be the chief problem for the new leader.

The final collapse of the traditional Labour coalition of working and middle class lefties is not a problem that began with Corbyn or Brexit. It was a problem for Ed Miliband in 2015 and partly lead to his defeat, although Corbyn has made it worse (or at least it has worsened under his watch). However, this coalition breakdown is a problem across the western world and can be seen distinctly in America and Germany too.

Corbyn became Labour leader in 2015 partly because of the collapse of this coalition. After Cameron’s unexpected majority no-one knew what to do. Moving to the left was an unknown quantity at the time and therefore a potential solution. Now that Corbyn has lost, Labour is back to facing the 2015 conundrum: what do we do when our traditional voters are moving in different directions? How do we hold the coalition together? What’s the best Brexit stance to take (there are still lots of people strongly opposed to Brexit)? There are no clear answers to these questions.

What happens next?

What happens next? Right now, I don’t know. I’m still coming to terms with the result. I’m interested to hear from any prospective Labour Party leaders who have answers to the above questions. They need to be seriously engaged with, in a way that hasn’t happened since 2015.

What I won’t support is “let’s do centrism because centrism always wins”. That’s not an answer to Brexit as most centrists I know are strongly opposed to Brexit and making Labour an anti-Brexit party doesn’t seem like the best way to win back Leave voting seats. Also, can centrism unite working class people in small towns and metropolitan liberals? Are centrists pro-free movement? Are they in favour a Green New deal? Do they want to get involved in the culture war? Simply saying “let’s do centrism” doesn’t answer these questions.

Personal reflection

For myself, a time a personal reflection will follow. I was wrong to support Corbyn for so long. He should have gone earlier if this disaster was to be averted. Again, hindsight is 20/20.

I still believe in the policies I have always believed in. What I call socialism. In the short term, more money for schools and hospitals. Less inequality, child poverty, homeless and environmental collapse. In the long term, moving away from a market-based economy to something fairer that gives people more of a say in their lives and is less dominated by entrenched social power. Nothing that I want has changed.

I’m thinking about the best way to achieve these things. Maybe first past the post means the binary nature of UK partisan politics will always be hostile to proper left policies. Maybe our minimalist proposition needs to be more minimalist. Maybe the left needs to be in people’s communities more and on their social media less.

Like the questions above I don’t currently have answers to these questions. However, a defeat of this magnitude should give us all pause for serious thought. That’s the only way we’ll win the future.

Picture of Jeremy Corbyn taken by Garry Knight and used under creative commons.