Labour is trapped by the split over Scottish independence in Scotland and England
The further North one travels the harder it is for Labour to win. London is a Labour stronghold, but in the last election the Tories won across large swathes of the Midlands and the North. Travel north of England and you get to a land where Labour haven’t won a decent share of the seats since the 2010 general election.
Labour lost badly in Scotland in last year’s general election. However, Labour’s problems there pre-date Jeremy Corbyn’s term as leader. The problem goes back to Labour standing shoulder to shoulder with the Tories in the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum and how Labour dealt with the rise of the SNP in Holyrood before that. In the 2010 general election, Labour won 41 seats in Scotland the SNP won six. In 2015 the SNP won 56 seats to Labour’s one. Since then, Scotland has been beyond Labour’s reach.
The problems Labour is facing in its former heartlands are worse in Scotland and the factors that led to Labour’s woes have been fermenting north of the border for longer. Last December Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, the seat of former Prime Minister Gordon Brown where Labour once boasted a majority of 23,009, was won by a SNP nominated candidate. (Although candidate Neale Hanvey was suspended from the SNP for alleged anti-semitic social media posts.)
In Holyrood, and in Scottish seats in Westminster, the SNP rule supreme. Will Labour ever be able to win in Scotland again? Can they stop the all-defeating Scottish National Party?
The success of the SNP
The SNP’s success is partly due to their effectiveness as a political party. Whilst I am personally opposed to all forms of nationalism, from angry Trump nationalism to softly spoken SNP nationalism, I must acknowledge that Nicola Sturgeon is a very talented politician and a great leader for the SNP. She combines a wild passion for change with a calm reasonableness that allows her to not only bridge, but to transcend, the gap between idealistic and pragmatic politics.
The SNP are able to present themselves as lefty (or at least liberal) in contrast to the underlying conservatism of the English and thus appeal to left-wing Scotts who are tired of being ruled over by right-wing governments they didn’t vote for. At the same time, they are appealing to the voters moved by nationalism: a politics of identity based on place of birth and a sense of grievance that the people born in said place have been betrayed by a culturally (and physically) distant elite.
The SNP are also in power in Holyrood and using the authority of being in government to increase their support, as all governments attempt to do. At the same time they are telling a story about how Scotland can be a radically different country, if the SNP are allowed to follow their transformative agenda. They are both technocrats and populists; passionate and pragmatic. They’re something to everyone, or at least most Scots.
Anti-English hatred
The SNP benefits from an underlying current of anti-Englishness in Scotland that can spill over into outright hatred. The SNP themselves aren’t frothing with hatred like many nationalists the world over, but they do benefit from being the electoral home of anti-English hatred. This allows them to appear moderate and reasonable whilst winning the support of people who are very angry about the status quo.
There isn’t a party more nationalist than the SNP in Scotland. No one is biting at their flank, accusing them of being too moderate and peeling off the more hardcore (or more angry) proponents of Scottish nationalism. This allows the SNP to reach out to undecided Scotts, the wavering people who could decide the outcome of a future independence vote.
These voters are a crucial part of the SNP coalition and they depend on them for their victories in Westminster and Holyrood elections. The SNP don’t have the risk of being the victims of a rear-guard action. I do wonder how they would manage their message, if they had a more aggressive, openly hateful of the English, nationalist rival to contend with.
Labour is caught between union and independence
The SNP’s strength is that they can tailor their message to appeal to the crucial swing voters in Scotland, safe in the knowledge that committed nationalists are behind them. Whereas Scottish Labour is trapped between supporters of independence and supporters of the union, just as Labour is caught between Leave and Remain voters.
Labour is not seen as sufficiently pro or anti-Scottish independence. The parties that have done well in Scotland have a clear position: the SNP for independence and the Scottish Tories (once on the verge of extinction) for the union. Despite Labour moving to the left, they are still stuck in the middle of a political divide.
Emotive issues
This is splitting the Labour vote is causing electoral ruin. The independence/union fault runs across the middle of the Labour voting coalition, just as the Leave/Remain faultline does. In England and Wales, the Tories revived their fortunes after the disastrous 2019 European elections by unambiguously choosing a side of the divide and leveraging it for all it was worth.
Scottish independence (or Brexit) are very emotive issues. They concern how people see the future of their country. On such emotive issues, voters response well to passion and not moderation. This isn’t the 90s, where being dispassionate and shunning ideology was the way to show you were serious about politics.
This is an age of emotive stories about what the future should be like and Labour is losing out by not having a firm stance on the most important issue affecting Scotland. For Scottish independence (and Brexit) Labour needs to find the side it feels passionate about and strongly articulate this to the voters.
Angry English Brexiteers
The issue of Scottish independence is not only divisive in Scotland, but in England as well. If Scotland were to leave the union, it would be a radical change to the United Kingdom. In many ways the country would cease to exist and we would become a new country. Thus English people’s views on Scottish independence is tied up with other highly emotive political debates that concern how we see the future of the country.
From speaking to English people about Scottish independence the split of opinion (roughly) follows the same divide as English people’s views on Brexit. However, not in the way that you would think. Remainers tend to be more pro-Scottish Independence and Brexiteers more pro-union. Being able to leave pan-national political unions it appears, doesn’t extend to the Scots.
English Brexiteers really don’t like the SNP. Not all of them feel this way, but for many a Brexiteer mentioning the SNP gets their blood up faster than calling the British Empire a racist project or criticizing nostalgia for the Blitz Spirit. The root of this objection to the SNP is that they are seen as anti-patriotic. Their fundamental political goal is the destruction of the United Kingdom, or least it's irrevocable change, which is antithetical to the English.
Anger about the Barnett Formula
In addition to this, the SNP exists to campaign for Scotland. They’re seen as wanting to get more than Scotland’s fair share, and there’s nothing that makes an English person angry than the thought of someone, who isn’t them, (maybe, gosh, someone who is different to them) getting more than their fair share).
This is tied up in anger about the Barnett Formula and how public money is allocated to Scotland. The Barnett Formula seems quite reasonable to me (it will obviously cost more to run an ambulance service in the Scottish Highlands than in East London) however, many English people see the SNP’s advocating for Scotland as nothing but naked greed at the expense of English taxpayers.
English Remainers and pro-EU Scottish nationalists
English Remainers are different. They’re generally more in favour of Scottish independence and some are even more vocally pro-SNP. I have seen some Labour supporting English Remainers praising the SNP when Labour make noises about accepting the referendum result and listening to Labour supporters who voted for it. This is usually tied up with English Remainers claiming they are politically homeless.
The SNP have won affection from English Remainers by doing the two things they want most from English political parties: being pro-EU and winning. The SNP does this well and no English political party can muster both.
My view
I’m an Englishman (anyone who has heard my ridiculous RP accent will know I am incurably English). I was born in the Midlands and live in London. However, my family has roots in Scotland, something that was acknowledged by giving me the Scottish name Alastair. As such I have fondness for Scotland as part of the United Kingdom that goes beyond what I feel for other regions, even my native Midlands.
Personally, I am opposed to Scottish independence. I see any form of nationalism as stoking the fires of strife between people. I feel no strong national identity or attachment to the nation state. I don’t want to make more nations, but less of them. I want to see humanity united in a common union of us all, although I’m not sure what this would look like as a political project.
Also, if Brexit has taught us anything, it’s that unwinding political unions along a timeline that satisfies voters hungry for immediate change is a waste of time that could be better spent doing anything else. Like more Olympics and Eurovisions, everyone loves those.
England divided
It’s my strong belief as an Englishman that the issue of Scottish independence says something about how we see ourselves and our country. On one side we have those who believe that your national identity, as determined by where you were born, is important and want these national identities to be protected. Protecting national identity includes taking Britain out of the EU, but keeping the United Kingdom together. It also includes limiting immigration and preserving British culture as it is.
On the other side we have those who are skeptical of national identity and value political projects that transcend nations. They believe that national cultures are enhanced by the mixing of people and the changes this brings. Their belief in this includes supporting parties whose purpose is tearing up existing nation states, so long as they preserve the overall goal of maintaining the political projects that transcend nations.
The way forwards
If Labour is going to form a majority government ever again then it needs to be able to win in Scotland. Now that Labour has a new leader, Keir Starmer must make winning back Scotland a priority if he is serious about winning power in Westminster. Labour needs a position on Scottish independence that shows passion and that speaks to Scots. Half measures will not be enough.
Labour’s problem in Scotland speaks to a bigger problem facing Labour across the entire United Kingdom. The problem is that Labour don’t have a story they can tell that speaks to people across the country, a story that makes the voters desire a Labour government. This story needs to include Scottish identity and go beyond it to include all national identity. How can Labour tell such a story? That’s what I will dive into next time.
