Against the odds and my expectations, Joe Biden did okay in the midterms

When Joe Biden emerged as the front runner in the Presidential Election, way back in March 2020 - remember then? Oh, how little we knew - I’ll be the first to admit that I was sceptical. Biden has been a Washington insider for decades, meaning that he is old and that he is firmly part of the establishment, so he was unlikely to bring about radical change. Despite the many reasons to choose someone else, anyone else, to lead the Democrats he seems to be doing okay.

Even the Democrats were predicting that a red wave would roll across America in the recent midterm elections, but today it looks like the Democrats might even gain strength in the Senate. Holding ground in a midterm election is unusual, where disappointed voters kick against the government, but Biden appears to have fought off the best efforts of Republicans to deal him a body blow.

Perhaps after years of Donald Trump’s chaotic and ineffective leadership Americans are more ready to turn to establishment insiders who know how to get things done. Trump’s complete ineffectiveness at being President led to millions of deaths from Covid-19, whereas Biden has managed to pass through Congress climate change legislation, student debt relief and a bill to improve the competitiveness of American industry.

Modest achievements

Yeah, I agree, this is not an epic accomplishment and much of the legislation passed falls short of the huge efforts that are needed to tackle the biggest issues affecting America, and the world, from climate change to inequality. On the other hand, getting anything approved by Congress in the hugely divided and bitterly hostile American political system is an achievement. Trump couldn’t pass his healthcare bill, even with control of the House and Senate. 

The route to Biden’s popularity, or at least his lack of crashing and burning so far, might be down to low expectations. People no longer believe their government can do anything and only expect their politicians to hurl insults at each other. Biden is exceeding low expectations with modest achievements, but he is getting the government to do something, anything, whilst not taking every opportunity to worsen the political discourse. It doesn’t sound like much, but if you’re expecting a shit sandwich and get watery ham then you’re inclined to feel good about it.

Lessons for Labour 

Keir Starmer could learn from this. As the Tories appear to be doing everything to make the cost-of-living crisis and the economic situation worse, doing something, anything, would be an improvement. In the UK, we are also pretty cynical about government and politicians, so if Starmer can do anything, no matter how modest, to make the situation better he will exceed expectations. 

The lesson Starmer is taking from the States is that clinging to centrist policies, chasing middle of the road, socially conservative, voters who have moved right recently is the way to win. This strategy involves driving anything that even smells left-wing out of your party, which is apparently toxic to all voters. 

If that’s the lesson Labour wants to take from Biden, then its worth remembering that Biden did pass a large packet of climate change legislation and made progress on the key left-wing issue of student debt. Meanwhile this week Starmer took time out to say he was opposed to climate protestors.

Some small amount of progress

Biden has turned moderation and moderate expectations into moderate achievement, and because of this he’s not been crushed under a wave of Republican indignation. This is despite Republican efforts to paint him as a woke Josef Stalin. I’m pleased to see some hope and some small amount of progress on the big questions, like climate change and inequality, from America. This is very welcome after years of nothing but venomous rhetoric from authoritarian blowhards.

I do worry that this may be too little, too late. We need far reaching and radical change if we’re going to divert the tide of misery that is already rising all around us. It doesn’t look like mainstream left-wing politicians can provide this radical change, but it is, at least for now, not causing the tide to rise faster. I guess that’s something.

"Joe Biden" by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0