What Labour should not learn from the French election

I have to say that I breathed a huge sigh of relief when Emmanuel Macron was re-elected as President of France last week. Not that I harbour any love for the centrist French premier, who has spent his first five years in office drifting to the right on social issues (particularly around immigration and Islam), picking fights with France’s unions and trying to cut back the country’s social security safety net. 

There isn’t much to love about Macron, between describing himself as the Roman god Jupiter - no really - and trying to do Thatcherite reforms to the French economy, just at the time when even the centrists in Britain and the US are realising that cutting back the state with a devil take the hindmost attitude isn’t a good idea.

Whatever your criticism of Macron, I think we can all agree that Marine Le Pen is much worse. She’s the type of far-right to make Nigel Farage look positively tepid. I would fear for non-white French people and immigrants (much more than I do already) if she was elected. So last week I breathed a sigh of relief and opened a bottle of Chambolle-Musigny to toast the centrist dad’s favourite politician's re-election.

We demand something slightly better than the authoritarian far-right

Macron won easily, although not as easily as last time, because his opponent was so awful. This is a damning indictment of centrism. The only argument for what Macron offers is that it’s better than an objectively awful alternative. It’s hardly a banner to rally around or a shout that will echo through the ages. “We demand something slightly better than the authoritarian far right.”

What will Labour leader Keir Starmer learn from this? That it’s possible to win by appearing like the much-hated “establishment politician” when your enemy appears to be much worse, most likely.

This is the argument that British voters want a competent bank manager type politician as Prime Minister. This is how David Cameron beat Ed Miliband, the argument goes, and how Boris Johnson (looking a lot less like a competent bank manager than Cameron) beat Jeremy Corbyn (who looked even less like a competent bank manager).

An establishment political tradition

If Starmer is betting on Johnson/The Tories looking as off-putting as Le Pen and her National Rally, so that he can win the same way as Macron did, he’s in for a rude awakening. Le Pen carries more baggage going into an election, not the least her father’s name that is inescapably associated with the extreme right. As such, the French media and voters show her less deference than the Tories get.

Also, Johnson and The Tories are the government, so the argument of “you must not let this dangerous person near power or they will destroy everything” doesn’t work when Johnson is already PM. Even if Johnson’s time as PM has been a disaster and he shouldn’t be given more power or allowed to stay in power, past disasters don’t have the same scary quality as possible future disasters.

Finally, Johnson is not Le Pen. He’s part of an established and well-known political tradition and falls within The Overton Window or bounds of “normal politics”. The Tory party has moved to the right substantially in the last six years, but many people still associate it with great leaders like Winston Churchill or moderate, centre-right figures like Ted Heath.

Le Pen and the National Rally doesn’t have that history making her seem more reasonable. She is clearly outside what most French voters see as acceptable, despite her attempts over the last five years to look more like a normal politician. Politicians from establishment traditions, from the Tories to the Republicans (both US and French Republicans) are acting more and more like the far-right, but the successes of far-right figures like Le Pen has been making mainstream parties adopt her fringe views, and not stopping herself been seen as a fringe politician.

Uninspiring continuity

One takeaway from all this is that it’s possible to win without offering the electorate any substantial possibility of change. Even in the angry, constantly upheaving, “things cannot go on like they are” 2020s - where the only roar is the roar of protests demanding things be different - it’s possible to win by offering centrism, continuity and establishment values.

Again, I feel this doesn’t apply to Starmer’s Labour as Johnson isn’t seen in the same light as Le Pen. Also, Starmer isn’t offering continuity because he’s not in government. Still, all this does demonstrate you don’t have to be particularly inspiring to win. Starmer can take some comfort in that.

The other takeaway that Labour is likely to embrace wholeheartedly is that it’s possible to win by completely ignoring left-wing voters. Macron has talked about how he’s listening to the anger of right-wing voters, giving more justification for them to at least flirt with voting far-right in the future to get what they want.

Listening to the left

Macron has said: “I know that many of my compatriots voted for me not to back my ideas, but to keep out those of the far-right,” but during the campaign he didn’t say much about reaching out to left-wing voters who supported Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round. Despite his economics being “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” I’m not wild about a man who wants to ban the veil. Let’s just say that Mélenchon’s social views aren’t in line with what I consider to be the modern left.

Macron also seems to have little interest in those who voted for the centre-left Socialist Party, led by Anne Hidalgo who, as mayor, has put making Paris a modern green city at the heart of her agenda. Hopefully, Macron is aware that he won this second term because of left-wing sufferance and his statement about people not backing him for his ideas is more than words, i.e. a genuine desire to listen to people who objected to his policies in his first term as president.

Too close for comfort

I don’t think there is much that British left-wing politicians can learn directly from this French election. The Le Pen factor is crucial. Johnson and his government are in the same plane of awfulness as Le Pen, but they cling to the “legitimate” side of the right/far-right split in the minds of many UK voters. They have the veneer of acceptability that comes from being in a party that has been in and out of power for centuries.

It’s good that a dangerous far-right politician didn’t become the leader of the world’s sixth-largest economy, with a huge military and a massive civil infrastructure to bend to their will. Although, I’m not too hopeful about the future, in France and elsewhere, as this election was too close for comfort.