It’s Johnson’s success and not his downfall that shows the way forward for Labour
Boris Johnson, the worst Prime Minister of my entire life - as I was born in 1985, that’s really saying something - is finally shuffling off the stage in utter disgrace. Like an unwanted party guest - who shat on your sofa and then out of sheer brass insisted he stay for one more spliff and another bit of Karaoke - has finally realised that literally everyone wants him gone so he is finally going. Maybe now we can clean the shit stain off our democracy and try and save something of the evening.
It’s either the most ironic or unironic piece of Westminster history that Johnson was ultimately undone by his lying. He has lied his way through several careers, but finally his lies over the appointment of Christopher Pincher as chief whip have brought the whole house of cards down in a huge, undignified tumble. Now he’s a disgrace and the whole nation sees him for who he is: an inadequate chancer out of his depth and only worthy of derision.
I watched his embarrassing resignation live on air. In just over six years I have seen three Tory PMs stand humiliated on the steps of 10 Downing Street and offer a bitter resignation. First David Cameron, after gambling it all on a referendum he lost. Then Teresa May, brought down by the Brexit deal she once hoped would make her more popular than Margaret Thatcher at her height but ultimately couldn’t pass. Now Johnson, undone by his own worst instincts. Despite all of this, the Tory party is still in power.
More free market fundamentalism
Good riddance to bad rubbish as far as Johnson is concerned. The next question is: which of the various flavours of awful will be the next Tory leader? There’s a whole range to choose from, from the terrifyingly posh to the terrifyingly right-wing. There’s those who want to cut the state back to the size it was in 1935 and those who want to cut it back to the size it was in 1855. There’s those who want stupidly low taxes and those who want dangerously low taxes. There’s those who want to start a culture war over trans rights and those who want to start a culture war over immigration. A real diversity of candidates.
My instinct is that the Tories will go in a different direction from Johnson for the next leader. Someone not quite so comfortable with lying and being so boldly corrupt. Most likely, the Tories will choose someone more into the free market. Tory MPs weren’t keen on how much Johnson was up for using the state to tackle the problems of the country. They prefer the unfettered forces of capitalism to sort things out. That hasn’t worked in more than 40 years of neoliberalism, but that hasn’t dampened the Tories enthusiasm for it.
The lesson for Labour
Johnson’s humiliation has left Labour riding high in the polls. However, a new leader could change all of that. The biggest risk to Labour is from a Johnson-esque populist. Someone keen on divisive culture wars, which cut across the coalition that Labour needs to win over. However, for such a populist to be a success they need to offer more. They need to offer ‘levelling up’, i.e. using the state to address the economic, cultural and political inequalities in this country by investing in places that have suffered in the last 40 years. Johnson talked this up (although he did little) and it won him popularity. There’s a lesson in this for Labour.
The Tories will be lining up more rounds of austerity, with some tax cuts for the people they like thrown in (that’s pensioners, corporations and the wealthy for those who haven’t been paying attention). Austerity will be bad for all the voters Labour needs to win over, from young Remainers living in cities to retired Leavers living in small towns. Johnson won by running against the previous nine years of Tory austerity. Labour should run against it too.
Labour should avoid being drawn into arguments about the deficit and tax levels. They shouldn’t be drawn into a debate about whether the state can fix the problems of the country. Five minutes ago, the Tories were all up for fixing the problems of the country (largely created by them) with state power. It was popular. Labour should make a pro-state, pro-levelling up argument. The way to beat the next Tory leader is to learn from Johnson’s success and not rely on his ignominious downfall to win Labour the next election.
"Boris Johnson at Conservative Party Conference" by conservativeparty is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
