Lack of enthusiasm, forgone conclusions and stirrings on the right: this could be the strangest election of my life

I can honestly say that this is the least discussed general election of any general election of my life. The campaign is nearly done and outside of the major news publishers practically no one is talking about it. I have seen very few people out canvassing and far fewer than normal signs in gardens. I’ve seen the country get more excited about local elections than they are about the first opportunity in nearly five years to kick out the government.

The main reason for this is that everyone thinks this election is a foregone conclusion. Labour were way ahead in the polls from the start of the campaign and the Tories dismal performance so far - starting with Rishi Sunak getting soaked when announcing the election, moving onto his tax claims collapsing, before he offended everyone by leaving a D-Day commemoration event early and finally having loads of Tories caught up in the election betting scandal - has not changed anyone's mind about who to vote for or who will win.

The most interesting thing about this dull campaign, so far, is Nigel Farage unexpectedly standing to be an MP and taking over Reform. People are talking about who will represent one seat, Clacton, after the election more than they’re talking about who will be in Number 10. Everything else has been a walk for Labour, so there is absolutely no suspense at all about the outcome of this election.

“Starmer, I guess.”

Coupled to this is a complete lack of enthusiasm for Keir Starmer. He’s riding high in the polls because dissatisfaction with the Tories has reached epic proportions and the SNP collapsed at the same time. Sunak has done nothing to improve the Tory’s image or dismal record in government and people want them gone. It’s as if the whole country has shrugged it’s shoulders, sighed and said “Starmer, I guess.”

People want change and Starmer is offering as little of it as possible, because a few thousand easily spooked swing-voter Boomers could curb his majority if they think he'll do something crazy like spend money on schools or be nice to immigrants. “Starmer, I guess,” is the best possible result that Labour can get from these people.

The rest of the country has buckled up for the thrilling ride of “more of the same,” with the added bonus of the government being less nakedly corrupt and awful. It’s not exactly the sort of campaign that songs will be written about. It’s not Barack Obama’s hope and change. It’s continuity with minor tweaking around the edges in the hope that this makes things better for everyone. I guess it’s better than the Tories not caring about anyone at all.

Things can only get a bit better

Even the music that we have had during this campaign - “Things can only get better” being blasted at Sunak when he made his electoral announcement - is just recycled Blair optimism and has nothing to do with Starmer.

The most radical moment of the campaign has been Abigail Morris from The Last Dinner Party telling people on stage at Glastonbury that the election is not the end of the struggle if the Tories lose and that we need to keep protesting, signing petitions and boycotting after the election. I wish the Baroque hyper-femme rock band were the leaders of the opposition, instead of Starmer. He probably likes Coldplay.

All this might produce an odd result. Low enthusiasm for Starmer and a general feeling that the election is a foregone conclusion might mean low voter turnout for Labour. Whereas the Tories that are still voting for Sunak are very passionate about the party, and really hate Labour, and will turn out. Plus, they have the motivation that if they don’t vote it will be a huge Labour landslide.

Strange times. Or maybe not

Farage and Reform are also adding to the complications. Reform are a new party, so it’s difficult to judge how well they will do. Sure, UKIP and The Brexit Party, both previously led by Farage, didn’t get many candidates elected outside of European Elections and Farage himself has failed to become an MP seven times.

That said, these are strange times. Anger on the right about immigration, net zero targets, ULEZ and “the woke” has never been higher and support for the Tories from the right has never been lower. A huge number of people might be about to vote Reform, which will happen at the same time as a record low Tory vote and possibly a low Labour vote, driven by either complacency about Labour’s poll lead or lack of enthusiasm for Starmer.

I think polls predicting the Tories being knocked back to 50 seats and the Lib Dems or Reform becoming the official opposition are over excited. There are a lot of shy Tories out there who will be voting. Lib Dems will likely have their best performance since 2010 and Reform might get one to two MPs, but the first-past-the-post system means that these two parties can get record high numbers of votes and will it translate into very few seats, while Labour and the Tories gain from their built in advantages (especially the Tories).

Dark times to come. Most likely

A big Reform vote will hurt the Tories and help Labour in a number of Red Wall seats that Starmer has his eye on. Also, a strong Reform vote and Farage getting into parliament will have a big impact on the Conservative leadership election that will likely take place this summer in a state of despair and panic.

Farage is more likely to get serious power by being welcomed into the Tory Party post election than by his party replacing the Tories as the dominant party of the right. He might even end up being Tory leader by the next election. That’s more likely than 150 Reform MPs being returned on July 4th.

Then again we live in dark times, so I’m not offering to eat my hat on any account as there is a good chance that I end up chowing down on a piece of cheap canvas I bought from a tourist vendor near the Brandenburg Gate.

Radioactive zombie Tories

Strange things are occurring in this election. Starmer is less popular than Ed Miliband was at this point (although, it must be noted he is way more popular than Sunak, and voters preferred Cameron in 2015). Also, Reform voters are especially angry about Starmer and Labour, hating them more than the Tories, which is not good news for Starmer’s program to rebrand Labour as not a Corbyny woke party by plastering the flag over every single election leaflet. The best Starmer can hope from these human stains is that they stay home with Euro hangovers on Thursday. 

Most likely Starmer will win big - although I doubt he will get a 200 seat majority, as some polls are saying, or even a 100 seat majority. Starmer will win, but it will be off the back of a divided right, huge Tory resentment, the belief that his victory is inevitable and little enthusiasm for what Starmer is offering.

He’ll then have to tackle the huge problems of the country to defend his electoral gains, whilst facing a challenge from the right (possibly led by Farage) and the twisted rump of the Tory party that survives this election who, like zombies a nuke has been dropped on, will stumble on with horrible intent made more ugly and more dangerous by the blow that was supposed to kill them. If Starmer can’t summon some enthusiasm from the public to face this threat, then his government won’t last long.