Starmer has won big. Now what?

Right, I am doing it. I said I would. I’m raising a glass of hoppy craft beer to Keir Starmer for dragging Labour into power and ending 14 years of Tory nightmare. It was certainly gratifying to sit up on election night and watch the Labour results roll in (even though I didn’t vote for them) and see the Tories get a justly deserved kicking. It was especially cathartic to see Jacob Rees-Mogg, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps lose their seats.

Starmer firmly has his hands on the wheel of power, so now he must use it to improve the lot of people in this country. Especially the homeless, starving children, disabled people unable to access essential benefits, migrants trapped by the hostile environment and people with insecure housing. It would also be good if he did something about low wages, high cost of living, the nation’s crumbling infrastructure and the climate disaster we are speeding towards like a suicidal lemming. With a majority of this size there can’t be any excuses.

Still, hats off to Starmer for winning that big majority. It gives him the power to enact his program, the success of which will be his legacy. There’s no point in there being 400 plus Labour MPs if they don’t use the huge power of the British state to improve the lives of people who have been suffering under 14 years of Tory rule (that’s everyone apart from the very rich). If they do nothing, behave timidly and make excuses, then that huge majority will disappear at the next election.

1997 redux

It is telling that Starmer managed to rack up fewer MPs and a smaller share of the vote then Tony Blair did in 1997. That’s with the Tories detonating the economy, driving up mortgage rates, partying during lockdown, launching the election in the pouring rain, disrespecting D-Day and getting caught up in an election betting scandal. Truly, there has never been an easier election for Labour to win.

What happened was that the Tories lost. And lost badly. Rishi Sunak performed a lot worse than John Major did in 1997, finishing with 44 fewer MPs and a much smaller share of the vote. The voters weren’t as certain that they wanted Starmer as Prime Minister as they were that they wanted Blair in ’97. This is clear from Starmer only getting 1.7% more of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn did in 2019 and on a lower turnout. The only thing that the voters were certain about was that they didn’t want the Tories in power one second longer.

Enthusiasm or lack therefore of

There was little enthusiasm for Starmer during this campaign and most of the passion that did exist was excitement at kicking the Tories out translating into a burning desire to hammer on the button that would most likely eject them from power, i.e. voting Labour.

I don’t know who is excited for a government that will prioritise fiscal prudence, technocratic decision-making and sound management (apart from the people who will work in the new Labour government). If these people do exist, they’re the sort of people who get excited that there is a new U2 album coming out.

Change is needed

Whether we are enthusiastic for him or not, it’s up to Starmer to sort out the state the Tories have left the country in. With his big majority now is the time to make radical reforms. I sincerely hope that the people who have said that Starmer is a secret radical, and is lying his way to power, are right. If that is the case, the evidence should emerge soon.

Starmer could have stood on a platform of action to tackle the country’s problems, rather than promising as little as possible. There has never been a better time to be honest with the electorate about the challenges the country faces and the changes that are needed. Labour were certain to win this election. By how much is what was up for debate. They should have laid out a comprehensive plan to fix the problems of Great Britain.

That’s how Labour are going to win the election after this one. This one they won on “change” and “everyone hates the Tories.” The next one Labour can only win because they made a material difference to people’s lives. This can’t be done easily, so we need to know what the plan is now.

The plan should be socialism

I think the plan should be socialism. In other words, taxing the rich, private companies and assets and using this money to build social housing, create green jobs and rebuild our schools and hospitals. We also need to take bold moves to tackle climate change and inequality, or else all the benefits of economic growth will be swallowed up in mitigating extreme climate events or won’t benefit most people, i.e. those who will vote in the next election.

Starmer is obviously no socialist (despite the right-wing press trying to brand him as one) but he hasn’t even laid out a plan for grand centrist reforms. Even if he doesn’t care about the climate, which he most likely does (Starmer is many things, but he is not an American Republican-esq climate denier, he’s not that dumb) then he knows he needs to raise wages and improve housing, or he will be more of a Gordon Brown than the new Blair.

My centrist three point plan

As Starmer is no socialist here is a centrist take on what comes next that I offer for free to the new Labour government. Point 1: we need high-tech companies to locate or be created in the UK to facilitate the jobs and industries of the future; so that the economy can grow, wages can go up and the state's coffers can swell to spend money on fixing all the other problems from arming Ukraine to rebuilding hospitals.

Point 2: we need to spend the money on the necessary infrastructure and education (especially higher education) to make this happen. This needs to be across the country to address regional inequalities, aka levelling up. Point 3: we need to either raise taxes or borrow money or cut elsewhere to do this. Starmer has ruled out tax and borrowing, and public services can’t take any more cuts.

Starmer should make the argument about raising taxes and borrowing, point 3, to do point 2 so that point 1 can happen. Instead, he’s hoping to do point 2 with tweaks around the edges, so that he doesn’t have to have difficult conversations about point 3 and then hoping that point 1 happens so that we get the growth to do point 2 properly. This seems like a long shot to me.

Honesty with the electorate

To get this done he should have been honest with the electorate before the election, laying out the above (if he isn’t prepared to be more radically left-wing). He chose not to, and he did end up with a big majority, winning places like Lichfield that have been Tory since the constituency was created in 1997.

My preferred outcome is socialism, or using the wealth that we already have to fix the problems of the country. Starmer wants to create new wealth, absorb some of that into the state and then fix the big problems facing the UK.

Pressing the green button

It was hearty to see the Greens do better than I expected. Four Green MPs is massive and, with all the seats they came second, this could be the beginning of a much bigger change. Watch this space to see what happens. Many people on the left were not in favour of what Starmer was selling and wanted something more radical, me amongst them, so they pressed that green button.

Maybe this was because they were confident that Starmer would oust the Tories whatever they did. I think it’s mainly because it's becoming more apparent that the problems of this country need radical left-wing solutions and Labour cannot deliver this.

The rise of Reform

Of course, there are those who want radical right-wing solutions. Nigel Farage and his band of Reform orcs winning a handful of seats is an alarming sign, especially when you see how many votes they got. Many people on the right have lost all patience with the Tories and want a much more aggressively nationalistic right-wing politics to really punish immigrants and other people they despise. This was as much Sunak’s problem as people switching to Labour or the Lib Dems over the Tories’ economic record.

It’s not just far-right knuckle draggers who are hearing the siren call of Reform. There are many people who voted Tory, Labour or even Lib Dem who have strong views on immigration, hate “the woke” and want to angrily hoard the wealth the country has left for “people like them” as the rising tide of global chaos consumes us all.

In a few years’ time a lot of people who just voted for the charming silliness of Ed Davey, or the competent management of Starmer, or the Tory sensibilities of Sunak might be voting for the big angry nationalist Reform party. Or even a Farage led Tory party. Starmer should take heed.

Starmerism or barbarism

Starmer has lots of power but if he wants to see off the challenges of Reform and whatever even more awful thing the rump of the Tory party mutates into, then he needs to get cracking on making people feel better off, whilst also tackling the deep structural issues in this country. Whatever Starmerism is remains undefined, let’s hope it turns out to be the radical change we need or things are about to get very ugly.

Yeah, it won’t be easy, but this election has gifted Labour massive power, whilst also showing that a very dark future might only be just around the corner.

Polling station image taken by Rachel H and used under creative commons.